Moonlight Graham's Fantasy Baseball Forecast: The Trading Deadline

While Major League Baseball marks its trade deadline tomorrow afternoon at 4 PM, many Fantasy Baseball owners have a little more time to digest the MLB moves and act accordingly. In the Hausier’s Krowedum Fantasy Baseball League, owners have until August 5^th before trades are no longer an option for improvement. The deals started last week as players like Roy Halladay, Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard turned up on the rosters of the teams at the top, acquired from those out of the running. With many fantasy leagues facing deadlines over the next few weeks, it seems like a good time to discuss trade strategy and protocol from both sides of the transaction.

Contenders should always target statistical categories when making a trade and factor potential monetary gains into a player’s valuation. For instance, if you find that there is potential for a bump of three points in a tightly bunched ERA category and the prize for winning your league is $500, you should give up significantly more for Joel Pineiro or Jarrod Washburn than you would have back in April or May. They may not be players worthy of a high draft pick or stud keeper under normal circumstances but they are when you can win. Don’t underbid.

Be alert for peripheral deals that can help you by hurting your opposition. Earlier this week in the HK League, Bobby Carr found his Skippy Shakes looking up at the Shady Gradys. Carr saw that he had a big lead in HR and was locked into 6^th place in SB; 20 behind and 20 ahead of his closest rivals. The Gradys however had a slim 2 SB lead over the Four Horsemen. As Carr is just 6 points behind the second place Gradys in the overall standings, he sent Alex Rios to the Horsemen, hoping the addition would vault the Horsemen to the top of the category and take a valuable point away from a rival. A deal like this can be more valuable to you than an acquisition.

For more trade advice as well as Moonlight's Buy Low, Sell High lists, visit Fantasysportsdirt.com.

Moonlight Graham's Fantasy Baseball Forecast: Short Hops

The Marlins’ decision to send Ricky Nolasco to the minors earlier in the year is paying tremendous dividends right now as Nolasco is leading Florida’s charge to the top of the NL East. Sunday, Nolasco continued his hot streak with 12 K over 8 shutout IP… I’ve been asked more than a few times if Tigers’ 3B Brandon Inge is a Sell High candidate. At the hot corner, he might be, but his eligibility behind the plate makes him a keeper…Chicago’s Jermaine Dye, already with 20 HR and 51 RBI, is not only one of the more consistent performers in the game, he’s also one of the most underrated in most fantasy baseball rankings… While the Rockies try to convince themselves and others that Garrett Atkins will turn things around in the second half, the fact that the third baseman’s numbers have not improved a bit while Colorado has become the NL’s hottest team is enough to make me stay away… Mike MacDougal, 5 for 5 in S opportunities since becoming Washington’s closer, is this week’s example of why you should never reach for closers in your fantasy baseball draft… Baltimore’s Matt Wieters 3 H, 1 HR performance on Sunday raised his BA to .277 during a hot streak that started on Father’s Day when I got my Wieters t-shirt from my kids… Derrek Lee and David Ortiz have spent the month of June proving that players with hand or wrist injuries need warm weather more than anything in order to return to form… Seattle’s Brandon Morrow has strung together three solid performances as he readjusts to the starting rotation… Be careful if you have Alex Rios on your fantasy baseball team. You might be inclined to try and time Rios’ hot streaks, especially now that he’s been dropped to seventh in Toronto’s order. Don’t… In St. Louis, Colby Rasmus has 10 HR and 32 RBI in limited playing time. Keep an eye on him, though, as he’s still struggling to gain Tony LaRussa’s confidence and may lose AB when Mark DeRosa returns to the lineup… Tigers’ rookie hurler Rick Porcello, after a sensational start, may be hitting a wall, as indicated by two straight tough outings. Don’t give up on him… Vladimir Guerrero returned to the Angels’ outfield this weekend after serving exclusively as the team’s DH to this point… Dan Haren has issued just 15 BB in 17 starts… In his last 43 plate appearances, Lance Berkman has reached base 25 times… Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder have combined for 134 RBI to this point and the anemic Brewers have needed every one of them… Only Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire, Ralph Kiner, and Harmon Killebrew hit 300 HR in less AB than Adam Dunn, who reached the plateau this weekend…

For Moonlight's Buy Low - Sell High lists, visit him at fantasysportsdirt.com

Moonlight Graham's Fantasy Baseball Forecast: High and Tight

While injuries have certainly been a prevailing theme for many MLB teams, two managers have been pulling rabbits out of hats all year long. In Los Angeles, both Joe Torre and Mike Scioscia have their squads atop the division despite depleted rosters that would have sent lesser teams to the bottom of the standings. Torre has been without Manny Ramirez since April and has seen a complete power outage from C Russell Martin. Scioscia has had to deal with the death of Nick Adenhart, injuries to starters Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey and Ervin Santana while also struggling along without Vladimir Guerrero… It’s absolutely ridiculous that steroid cheat Manny Ramirez gets to do a Minor League rehab before his 50 game suspension is complete. If suspended farmhands have to sit out the whole sentence, why not the big boys?.. Joey Votto returned to the Reds’ lineup last week and picked up right where he left off. After sitting out more than a month, Votto revealed that his emotional problems stemmed from the difficulty he’s had in coping with his dad’s death. Funny how, sometimes, we forget that many of these big leaguers are still just kids. Good luck, Joey… The Marlins got a glimpse of why Andrew Miller was the focal point of the Miguel Cabrera trade with the Tigers. In his last start, Miller gave up a leadoff double vs. the Orioles and then not another knock through 7 IP… Though having hit just 1 HR, Andrew McCutchen has surprised in Pittsburgh with 14 RBI in his first 18 G… When you sit down for your Fantasy Baseball Draft next year, remember that Heath Bell, likely a very, very late pick in mixed drafts, is leading the NL in S while Brad Lidge has blown 7 S already. Never, ever, reach for relievers or chase saves. They always come into the league… Mark Teixeira’s offensive prowess was unquestioned when he signed with the Yankees. What many (me) didn’t know was how smooth he is in the field. He is the very definition of an all- around player… Hope you heeded some Moonlight wisdom about Gil Meche. Since throwing 132 pitches in a complete game, Meche has allowed 13 ER in just 8 IP over 2 starts. Another victim of the pitch count police as he isn’t used to the extra work… Don’t look now, but the Tampa Bay Rays have the AL’s best record since April 30th… Jimmy Rollins returns to the Phillies’ lineup on Tuesday, hoping that his four game vacation will help pull him off the Mendoza line… David Aardsma is turning into a dominant closer for the Mariners… Quick, who is currently the best pitcher in the AL? My vote goes to Josh Beckett. Healthy now, he looks very much like the 2007 version that won 20 G…


For Moonlight Graham's Buy Low and Sell High lists click here .

Moonlight Graham's Fantasy Baseball Forecast: Hitting The Cutoff Man

Keep an eye on Royals’ hurler Gil Meche over his last few starts for your fantasy baseball team. Sunday, in his first outing since throwing a career high 132 pitches in going the distance vs. Arizona , Meche was lit up by the Cardinals to the tune of 9 ER in just 3 IP… Look for the Cubs’ slumping young hitters to get a little boost with the addition of hitting coach Von Joshua. After firing Gerald Perry, Chicago reached into its farm system to promote Joshua, who established strong relationships with the likes of Geovany Soto and Ryan Theriot as they rose though the Cubs’ system… Yovani Gallardo, despite another stellar performance on Sunday vs. the Tigers, lost his fourth of the season. With any kind of offensive support, (he gained a 1-0 win against the Pirates in which his HR was the only run), Gallardo might be 10-1… Have to wonder how long the Padres can remain competitive without starters Jake Peavy and Chris Young, both on the DL… Looks like Seattle ace Felix Hernandez has finally decided to live up to his “King Felix” moniker…Cito Gaston is the latest AL’er to whine about losing a pitcher during Interleague play after losing closer Scott Downs to injury after Downs was hobbled running the bases in Philly. Gaston, in much the same rant as Hank Steinbrenner after the Yankees lost Chien Ming Wang last year, bemoaned the fact that AL pitchers are not used to running the bases. A professional athlete not used to putting one foot in front of the other?! C’mon, Cito. Even on a fantasy baseball team, I expect guys to run the bases.

Buy Low- Gotta love the warmer weather and the affect it has on players dealing with wrist and hand issues. In Chicago, Derrek Lee has been on fire; adding a power stroke to supplement his rising BA… In Boston , David Ortiz has started to calm the fears of Boston fans thinking he might be through. Not only has he popped 5 HR over the last two weeks, his Sunday blast was over the Green Monster, something he wasn’t able to do early in the season as he dealt with the lingering effects of a hand injury…Casey Blake is the latest Dodger to step up and fill the void left by steroid cheat Manny Ramirez… In St. Louis , Adam Wainwright has been pitching like the ace of the staff for the last month. At an unspectacular 7-4, he might be able to be had… Moonlight followers jumped on Cliff Lee a few weeks ago while his poor won-loss record was camouflaging a stellar season. This may be your last chance to acquire the Cleveland ace… Kevin Millwood, the leader of a Texas rotation that has the Rangers in contention, struck out 10 on Sunday in lowering his ERA to 2.62…

Sell High- Time to cut your losses and sit Jay Bruce for a little while as the Reds’ OF has seen his BA drop as low as .215… Vernon Wells, mired in a season long slump that may or may not have to do with his health, may be losing the confidence of his manager.

Grab Bag- The Pirates seem to have lost all patience with Brandon Moss as indicated by the increased playing time of Delwyn Young; a nice grab in an NL only league… Can’t find a reliable starter in you AL only league? Why not turn to O’ middle man, Brian Bass, instead? He’s 3-0 1.117 over his last 23 IP an could eventually find himself in the Birds’ rotation…

Drop Zone- Arizona ’s Doug Davis has not only been cuffed around in his last few starts but has a very uneasy relationship with new D’Backs’ manager A.J. Hinch. Davis may be the odd man out when Brandon Webb returns to the rotation… Don’t know if the Giants can afford to remove Jonathan Sanchez (2-7 5.43) from the rotation but you can’t afford not to…

Sick Bay- Edinson Volquez is about ten days from returning to the Reds’ rotation as he continues to rehab his elbow… Brad Lidge will be back in the Phillies’ bullpen sometime this week… Jake Peavy could be out as long as three months with an ankle injury… Carlos Quentin will likely not return to the Chi Sox until the All Star break and, even then, will still be at risk of a recurrence of the plantar fascitis that has plagued him… Tigers’ OF Carlos Guillen may be facing shoulder surgery…

Moonlight Graham's Fantasy Baseball Forecast: World Baseball Classic Proving Hazardous To Health Of MLB Players

Under Commissioner Bud Selig’s reign, Major League Baseball has become more and more about marketing and sales and way less about the fans or even the game, itself. If there’s a way to create a new revenue stream or bump up the current prices, Selig and his merry band of carpet baggers, baseball’s owners, will leap at it with no regard for who may be incurring the cost. Looking forward to taking your kids to an afternoon game on a summer Sunday? Check back with the team two weeks prior, as ESPN may have moved it to Sunday evening; a privilege the Commish and Co. signed away for extra cash when the last network deal was inked. Ticked off at the ridiculous prices being charged by the Mets and Yankees in their new homes? Selig can’t wait to tell anyone who’ll listen that he thinks the ducats have been priced responsibly. Even the nice patriotic gesture that sees teams wear Stars and Stripes hats on the three national holidays that fall within the season has been corrupted. Last year, when they debuted, each team wore a blue version of the cap, which was a big seller among fans. However, when Memorial Day rolled around this year, a red edition adorned the heads of all big leaguers. Let’s face it, how many more blue lids were actually going to be sold? As for the kids who thought they’d be wearing the same apparel as their heroes? Let Dad pony up another thirty five bucks and they’ll be up to date.

But, it is Selig’s most far reaching money grab, the World Baseball Classic, which has managed to put the players, themselves, in jeopardy. A made for television event played in 2006 and 2009, the WBC, features professional players representing their native countries in a two week tournament played at the beginning of March; or the time when most are just beginning the routine of preparing for the season. That many of the players might not be ready to compete so early was an issue seemingly disregarded as soon as a network exec reached for his checkbook. That there didn’t seem to be a whole lot of interest among fans was another factor that was ignored. So, on the games went, with their consequences to be realized during the regular season.

Of the 115 MLB players that participated in the event, 24 have spent time on the disabled list this year; more than twenty percent. There have been 7 more that have missed time to injury during the season but have not been disabled and still another 10 experiencing seasons that range from extremely sub-par to career-worst. That’s thirty five percent of those who played in the Classic having to deal with an unexpectedly disappointing season. Hope the payday was a good one, Bud.

Now, there are more than a few injuries that would have occurred no matter the situation. You can’t blame Cesar Izturis’ appendicitis or Brian McCann’s adverse reaction to laser surgery on the WBC. But some interesting patterns still exist. The Mets, for instance, not only sent the most players to the tournament but have had the most land on the DL. Even the Japanese, two time winners of the Classic and renowned for their conditioning, have seen no less than four from their roster miss time to injury.

Former Commissioner Bowie Kuhn was ridiculed at time by owners and fans alike for invoking the “best interest of the game” clause. Maybe that’s something Selig should consider. For, as the accompanying list shows, the “best interest of the game” is clearly not being served by the WBC. These players are paying the price for a shortened Spring Training. Unfortunately, until it hits him in his wallet, Selig probably won’t care.

DISABLED LIST

Mike Aviles Brian McCann

Alex Cora Oliver Perez

David Davidson J.J. Putz

Carlos Delgado Jose Reyes

Stephen Drew Carlos Ruiz

Jose Guillen Carlos Silva

Scott Hairston Joakim Soria

Chris Iannetta Ichiro Suzuki

Akinori Iwamura Edinson Volquez

Cesar Izturis Joey Votto

Daisuke Matsuzaka Brad Ziegler

MISSED TIME

Carlos Beltran

Miguel Cabrera

Carlos Guillen

Chipper Jones

Evan Longoria

Hanley Ramirez

Shane Victorino

UNDERPERFORMING

Joel Hanrahan

Matt Lindstrom

Jose Lopez

Magglio Ordonez

David Ortiz

Roy Oswalt

Jimmy Rollins

Jonathan Sanchez

Geovany Soto

Fernando Tatis

Moonlight Graham's Fantasy Baseball Forecast: Off The Foul Pole

Tough times for the members of the D’Backs rotation. In a recent six game stretch, the starters put up a 0.73 ERA in yet only came away with a 2-1 record. Arizona ’s offensive struggles will likely last all year if a trade isn’t made… Bobby Cox has yet to decide whether newly acquired CF Nate McLouth will bat leadoff or third. Expect to see him at the top of the Braves’ lineup whenever Chipper Jones is healthy… Matt Lindstrom , despite 11 S, is allowing too many men to reach base. An absurdly high 1.84 WHIP and a 5.92 ERA may have the Marlins looking elsewhere very soon… The injury suffered by J.J. Putz couldn’t have come at a worse time for the reliever. Signed through next year for $9 million, it is unlikely the Mets would cough up that much for a setup man. Now, it’s doubtful he has any trade value coming off elbow surgery… Pittsburgh ’s Ian Snell is 10-25 since the 2007 All Star break… Keep the faith, all of you expecting great things from Matt Wieters. They’re coming… Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland moved Curtis Granderson back to the leadoff spot after a week or so of batting him fifth…Don’t look now but B.J. Upton is getting healthy and playing like it… Boston hurlers Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have been lights out for the last month. Bad news for the rest of the AL East… Minnesota ’s Kevin Slowey has already allowed 12 HR…

Buy Low- Arizona ’s Stephen Drew has a 13 game hitting streak since returning from the DL. He’s hitting over .325 during that stretch… There’s no doubt that owners of Cleveland ’s Cliff Lee have been frustrated by his inability to recreate last year’s magic. However, despite his 3-6 record, his 3.17 ERA says he’s pitching well… Jose Lopez has started to turn it up in Seattle . He’s raised his BA to a modest .235 and has 6 RBI over his last 6 G. Middle infielders in the middle of the lineup are always Moonlight favorites…

Sell High- Don’t know if Sell High qualifies here but, based on reputation, there may be a market for Rafael Furcal . The Dodgers’ recently dropped him to 7 ^th in the order and his total of just 4 SB is extremely disappointing. As I always say, Back is a four letter word… Time to pull the plug on Jimmy Rollins , not so much for his .230 BA but his miserable .268 OBP. His new home in the six hole of the Phillies’ order won’t help his SB either… Yes, Juan Pierre has a .360 BA but it’s as Punch and Judy as they come. He’s only got another month before Manny returns, anyway so, dangle him out there and see if anyone bites…

Grab Bag- Antonio Bastardo has given the Phils a much needed lift over his first two starts. What I like about him is that he challenges hitters almost exclusively with his fastball… Mike MacDougal is the Nationals’ latest choice as closer. Probably won’t matter, as they don’t win much but, if you need S… Not many have noticed that Rockies ’ 2B is performing near the level that marked him as a Rookie of the Year front runner until he hurt his shoulder. Pick him up before they do… Pittsburgh ’s Andy LaRoche , (not him, the younger one), is starting to realize the potential that made him the Pirate’s biggest prize in the Jason Bay-Manny Ramirez deal… Since getting pounded for 9 R in 1 IP vs. Texas earlier in the season, Carl Pavano is 6-3 3.55…

Drop Zone- A.J. Pierzinski has just 12 RBI despite 5 HR and a .290 BA. If you’re in a mixed league, there has to be a more productive catcher on the free agent list… When Jim Tracy took over the Rockies , he vowed to stabilize the Colorado lineup and reinsert the struggling Garrett Atkins as the cleanup hitter. Atkins needed just four games to shake Tracy ’s confidence and now finds himself the odd man out as Ian Stewart gets the nod at 3B… San Fran’s Jonathan Sanchez is 2-5 5.19 and may be moved as the Giants desperately seek a much needed bat… The Milton Bradley experiment might be closing soon as rookie Jake Fox starts to get more AB for the Cubs. Last night, Bradley hit a new low, stranding a total of 10 base runners as his 0-for-6 dropped his BA to .208… Joel Hanrahan is no longer the Nats’ closer…

Sick Bay- Brad Lidge is on the 15 day DL with a bad knee. Don’t be so quick to blame his poor start on the injury, however, as he’s experienced meltdowns in the past; twice losing the closer’s job in Houston … Orioles’ SS Cesar Izturis had an appendectomy and is on the 15 day DL… Miguel Cabrera is dealing with a strained hamstring… Kelvim Escobar made his return to the Angels’ rotation from shoulder surgery over the weekend…

Farm Fresh- Matt Maloney was terrific in his MLB debut vs. the Cubs, allowing 2 R and 6 H over 6 IP. He’ll get at least another start in Edinson Volquez’s spot but may not remain thereafter. Wait for continued success before grabbing him… Todd Frazier , the Reds’ first round pick in 2007, is lighting up the AA Carolina League to the tune of a .343 BA. He leads the minors with 24 doubles and has logged time at 3B, SS and 1B. Look for the former Toms River Little League hero to hit Cincinnati later this year… Jesus Montero , 19 year old Yankees catching prospect was recently promoted to AA Trenton after posting a .356 BA in High-A with 8 HR and 37 RBI in just 48 G. Not much stands between him and Jorge Posada in the Yankees chain.